Wealth Tax News – 10/2/2026

With about a month until Election Day, California’s Prop 40 billionaire tax leads 48% to 38% in a new NBCUniversal Local/Telemundo Station Group poll but remains short of majority support, while opponents led by Sergey Brin have reserved nearly $100 million in ad time and are backing rival Props 41 and 42, which could supersede the tax.

Both gubernatorial candidates, Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton, reiterated their opposition at this week’s CNN debate. In Washington, a DHM Research poll found the I-645 repeal of the new 9.9% millionaires tax trails 57% to 35% when residents see the required fiscal-impact language, and elsewhere a New York judge ordered the city to redo its pied-à-terre tax rollout while 57% of Vermont Public poll respondents back a new yearly tax on second homes.

Please find summaries of relevant articles with web links below. Please reach out to any member of your Brownstein National Tax Policy Group team with questions or to set up a meeting.

Polling

Track the Latest Polls in California’s Prop. 40 Wealth Tax Initiative – The New York Times; California poll: Voters back a billionaire tax, but the proposal falls short of majority support – NBC
New polling by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc and sponsored by NBC/Telemundo asked 625 likely voters about Prop 40. 48% of respondents said they were in favor, 38% said they were opposed and 14% said they did not know.

Poll: Support for repealing WA ‘millionaires tax’ drops with budget impact – The Seattle Times
A DHM Research poll found that Washington’s Initiative 645, which would repeal the state’s new millionaire tax, loses support when residents are told that repeal would reduce funding for schools, higher education, and health care. Among residents shown the required fiscal-impact statement, 57% opposed repeal and 35% supported it, compared with a much narrower 44%–40% split without that language. The poll also found support for the tax declines if residents believe it could eventually apply to incomes above $100,000.

Federal

Join Bernie and Yes on 40. RSVP Today! – Yes on 40 Campaign
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) plans to campaign at rallies in California this weekend for Prop 40.

DCCC Releases First TV Ad in OH-01: “Chaos” – DCCC
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Coalition and the campaign for Rep. Greg Landsman (D-OH) is airing an ad in Cincinnati on a bill he introduced in September, titled the Working Americans Affordability Tax Credit Act (H.R. 10367). The bill would provide a monthly refundable tax credit to filers making less than $100,000 and would be funded by the Billionaire Income Tax Act. The Billionaire Income Tax Act would impose a minimum 20% tax on households’ incomes worth over $100 million, including unrealized gains. (Watch the ad here)

California

Becerra reiterates he will not support wealth tax, despite backing from many Democrats – CNN
On Wednesday evening, California gubernatorial candidates Xavier Becerra (D) and Steve Hilton (R) participated in a debate on CNN. They both agreed that they did not support Prop 40. Becerra said it “is not the way to do tax policy” and unsustainable, but did say billionaires should pay their fair share. Hilton agreed and said the priority is to help working people and not drive jobs out of the state.

California Wealth Tax Trickle-Down Concerns Are Unconvincing – Bloomberg Law
In a Bloomberg Tax opinion column, Andrew Leahey argues that warnings Prop 40 will inevitably spread to ordinary households overlook the existing property-tax system. He notes that homeowners already pay recurring taxes on a major component of their wealth, which a national average property-tax bill equals roughly 1.5% of median home equity annually. He argues that the more relevant debate is whether a lower-rate, recurring net-worth tax on ultrawealthy residents could be administratively workable. He acknowledges, however, that valuing and enforcing a tax on complex billionaire assets presents far greater practical challenges than taxing real estate.

California Wealth Tax Explained (And Why It Might Fail) – Tax Foundation Podcast
The Tax Foundation podcast examines Prop 40. Senior Fellow Jared Walczak argues that the proposal faces substantial constitutional and administrative risks: its retroactive residency rule and taxation of wealth accumulated after a taxpayer leaves California could invite due-process and Commerce Clause challenges, while valuing illiquid assets such as privately held companies, control shares, art, and other nonmarket assets would be incredibly difficult.

Walczak also argues that the tax could pressure taxpayers to sell or dilute illiquid business holdings, reduce investment and future business formation in California, and encourage wealthy residents to relocate. He notes that the measure places valuation responsibility on taxpayers and appraisers, backed by significant penalties if the state disagrees, despite limited guidance and a compressed implementation timeline. The discussion characterizes the proposal’s ~$100 billion revenue estimate as highly uncertain and warns that, if the tax were later struck down after revenues had been spent, the state could face significant refund obligations.

Billionaire wealth cannot solve the $2.1 trillion federal deficit – The Hill Op-ed
Jeff Hoopes, research director at the University of North Carolina Tax Center, argues that taxing billionaires alone would neither eliminate their political influence nor solve the federal deficit. His hypothetical 10% annual wealth tax over a decade would sharply reduce top fortunes but leave them large enough to fund substantial political spending. He also noted that the Forbes 400’s combined estimated wealth of $8 trillion would cover only about 3.8 years of deficits at the current $2.1 trillion annual rate, even if all of it were collected.

“Billionaires Shouldn’t Exist”: Labor Leader makes the case for a California Billionaire Wealth Tax – KTLA
Lorena Gonzalez, President of the California Federation of Labor Unions AFL-CIO, discussed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and noted its impact on health care for Californians. She also highlighted hospitals, maternity wards, and emergency rooms closing as a result of OBBBA. Gonzalez emphasized that it is a one-time tax, and claimed that billionaires will be able to earn those funds back within a few months and does not apply to 99% of Californians. She disputed the claims that billionaires would leave the state and said that they would have already had to leave the state due to the ballot’s design.

When asked about companies leaving and possibly taking union jobs with them, Gonzalez disputed that and said billionaires do not have union facilities. When asked about the language that would allow the state legislature to amend the measure without voter consent, Gonzalez argued that it was standard language for a measure and would allow the legislature to change the structure of how the California Franchise Board collects the tax or if there is something functionally wrong. When asked why Democrats are wrong to oppose Prop 40, Gonzalez accused them of spending time with billionaires.  

A Google co-founder is spending $100 million to defeat California’s wealth tax. It could become one of his best investments – CNN Politics
Google co-founder Sergey Brin has contributed more than $100 million to efforts opposing Prop 40 that could cost him roughly $14 billion. Supporters estimate the tax would raise about $100 billion to help address an expected $20 billion annual Medi-Cal funding gap, while opponents contend it would prompt wealthy residents and businesses to leave California and harm the state economy. The campaign has become one of the country’s most expensive ballot fights, with opposition groups reserving nearly $100 million in advertising and backing competing measures that could override the tax if they receive more votes.

Study examines potential impact of retirement taxes as Californians prepare to vote on Prop. 42 – FOX 40
Prop 42 would bar new state taxes on retirement accounts, personal savings, financial assets, and other personal property, while limiting certain retroactive taxes. Supporters cite a commissioned analysis estimating that a hypothetical 1% annual asset tax could reduce 401(k)-based retirement income by 20% to 37% and substantially increase workers’ retirement costs. Opponents argue the measure is designed to block Proposition 40’s billionaire wealth tax, potentially constraining future health-care funding; if both measures pass, Prop. 42 could prevail if it receives more “yes” votes and is found to conflict with Prop. 40.

Billionaire Tax Divides California Industry It’s Meant to Help – Bloomberg Law
Prop 40 has divided the health care sector over how to address looming Medi-Cal funding losses and a projected increase in the uninsured population. The sponsoring healthcare-workers union estimates the measure would raise $100 billion over five years, with 90% dedicated to health coverage. Leading California hospital and physician groups oppose the measure, arguing it is an untested and uncertain funding mechanism that could distract from more reliable health care solutions.

Washington

Washington Taxed Its Millionaires. Now the Rich Want It Repealed. – The New York Times
Washington voters will decide whether to repeal a new 9.9% tax on annual income above $1 million, which is projected to raise more than $3 billion a year. About 25,000 Washington households would pay the new millionaires tax. Although opponents warn it could drive wealthy residents away, research done by Cristobal Young, a researcher from Cornell University, found little out-migration after similar taxes in California and New Jersey, and Washington has not seen significant departures following its 2021 capital-gains tax. Opponents also worry lawmakers could eventually extend the income tax beyond millionaires, despite Gov. Bob Ferguson’s (D) pledge to veto such a move.

Florida real estate sees surge from Washington high earners fleeing new millionaire income tax – Yahoo Finance/FOX News
A Florida luxury real-estate specialist reports increased interest and completed purchases by high-income Washington residents seeking to avoid the state’s new millionaire tax. She also discussed Florida’s lack of individual income, capital-gains, and estate taxes as a principal draw, alongside lifestyle considerations. The article also points to a business survey showing heightened interest in relocation, though comprehensive data have not yet established how much migration is directly attributable to the new tax.

A survey done by the Association of Washington Business (AWB) found that 24% of survey respondents are considering leaving the state, while 55% of business leaders are weighing personal relocation—rising to 67% in Spokane County.

New York

Mayor Mamdani Must Redo New York City Pied-à-Terre Tax, Judge Says – WSJ
A New York state judge ordered New York City to redo its rollout of the pied-à-terre tax on second homes worth at least $5 million, finding that the city improperly required homeowners to prove their residency status instead of verifying it using available records. The ruling does not invalidate the tax, but it blocks further action on roughly 17,000 notices and requires the city to issue more targeted notices; the city plans to appeal. Separately, Wilbur Ross and Steve Wynn have sued to overturn the tax itself on constitutional grounds.

Vermont

Second home tax appeals to majority of Vermont poll respondents – Vermont Public
A Vermont Public poll found that 57% of respondents support a new annual tax on second homes, while 28% oppose it and 15% are undecided. Support is strongest among Democratic-leaning voters but extends to a majority of independents, while Republicans are divided. Democrats have been promoting higher taxes on luxury second homes and vacation rentals to support housing or health-care initiatives.

Other

Inside Wealth: Wealth tax heads to the ballot box – CNBC
Robert Frank discussed tax initiatives on ballots across the country. He highlighted Prop 40 and Colorado’s increased income tax measures, while also highlighting states that are working to lower property and income taxes. Joe Kernan discussed Bruce Blakeman’s tax plan, who wants to eliminate the income tax for certain taxpayers making less than $100,000. They also discussed the likelihood of Prop 40 being approved by voters.