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By WILL SWAIM<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n That\u2019s the assessment on Polymarket, where, as of Wednesday, 64 percent of bettors predict the union-backed initiative won\u2019t make it to the November ballot. They\u2019re betting that the measure\u2019s backers, Service Employees International Union\u2013United Healthcare Workers West (SEIU-UHW), will withdraw their \u201c2026 Billionaire Tax Act<\/a>\u201d before the June 25 filing deadline.<\/p>\n The assumptions come from a rumored compromise that SEIU-UHW insists won\u2019t happen. The union notes it gathered more than 1.5 million signatures to qualify the initiative \u2014 far above the roughly 875,000 valid signatures required. It also boasts support from Senator Bernie Sanders and Robert Reich, the former Clinton labor secretary and University of California professor. Supporters say the one-time tax<\/a> \u2014 which they predict will capture about $110 billion \u2014 is necessary to backfill cuts in the rate of growth of federal Medicaid funding.<\/p>\n But SEIU\u2019s biggest challenge isn\u2019t signature-gathering. It isn\u2019t a lack of progressive allies. It isn\u2019t even the prospect of an opposition campaign funded by the targets of the wealth tax,<\/a> <\/span>California\u2019s richest residents.<\/p>\n The biggest threat to the wealth tax is organized labor.<\/p>\n Leading the opposition is Governor Gavin Newsom, who has spent months assembling an unlikely coalition against one of labor\u2019s own proposals.<\/a><\/span> His antipathy for wealth taxes (he killed a 2022 legislative attempt by merely signaling his disapproval) is rooted in a longstanding California fiscal problem: The state relies heavily on a relatively small number of affluent taxpayers whose incomes are tied to volatile capital gains. An oft-cited Legislative Analyst\u2019s Office report warns the top 1 percent of California\u2019s wealthiest residents pay nearly half the state\u2019s income tax. Because capital is mobile, those taxpayers won\u2019t necessarily wait to see whether the measure passes. The Hoover Institution notes that mere rumors of the impending wealth tax were enough to prompt several billionaires to hit the eject button: director Steven Spielberg (who reportedly established residency in New York City); PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel (Miami); Google co-founders Larry Page (Miami) and Sergey Brin (reportedly Nevada); venture capitalist David Sacks (Austin); and auto-finance billionaire Don Hankey (Las Vegas). And though SEIU included him in its calculation of billionaire wealth in California, Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison left California for Hawaii in 2012.<\/p>\n Cataloging the chaos, researchers at Hoover concluded that, after accounting for taxpayer flight and implementation challenges, the measure would actually leave California $25 billion poorer.<\/p>\n Newsom saw it all.<\/p>\n \u201cThe evidence is in,\u201d he told Politico in January. \u201cThe impacts are very real \u2014 not just substantive economic impacts in terms of the revenue, but start-ups, the indirect impacts of . . . people questioning long-term commitments, medium-term commitments. That\u2019s not what we need right now, at a time of so much uncertainty. Quite the contrary.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThis will be defeated \u2014 there\u2019s no question in my mind,\u201d Newsom told the New York Times that same month. \u201cI\u2019ll do what I have to do to protect the state.\u201d<\/p>\n Now, Politico reports, Newsom is rallying labor unions representing teachers, police, construction workers, and carpenters, along with such prominent health-care organizations as Planned Parenthood, to join him.<\/p>\n The most striking defection came from the California Teachers Association. For decades, CTA has championed higher taxes on wealthy Californians.<\/a> <\/span>Early this month, the union voted to oppose the SEIU wealth-tax initiative, arguing that it would tank the state\u2019s general fund on which public education gets a constitutionally guaranteed 40 percent.<\/p>\n That vote revealed the real conflict. This isn\u2019t primarily a fight over whether billionaires should pay more taxes. It\u2019s a fight about whether the Atlas Shrugging of California\u2019s billionaires will destroy an economy \u2014 and a tax system \u2014 on which multiple parties depend.<\/p>\n But whatever the merits of those policy arguments, the initiative\u2019s political problem is even more immediate: Powerful unions appear increasingly unwilling to support it.<\/p>\n Insiders say Newsom\u2019s campaign to kill the measure before the June 25 deadline is more carrot than stick. He\u2019s threatening to kick SEIU-UHW President Dave Regan off Good Time Island.<\/p>\n \u201cDave Regan is seeing very plainly what he\u2019ll be up against if he goes through with this,\u201d a Newsom consultant told Politico.<\/p>\n Regan expected \u2014 was indeed counting on \u2014 opposition from billionaires: The image of wealthy Californians financing attacks on a tax-the-rich initiative would fit neatly into the union\u2019s political messaging.<\/p>\n But that strategy becomes far more difficult when opposition ads include teachers, police officers, construction workers, health-care organizations, and a Democratic governor.<\/p>\n One of SEIU\u2019s few union allies, Unite Here Local 11 leader Kurt Petersen, says bring it on.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is the fight we want,\u201d Petersen told Politico. \u201cWe\u2019re at war. People need to decide which side they\u2019re on.\u201d<\/p>\n Some have already made that decision. San Francisco voters in June rejected that city\u2019s \u201coverpaid CEO tax\u201d despite the support of every local labor union. And pre-campaign polling for the wealth tax is an anemic 52 percent.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, back on Polymarket, 82 percent of bettors predict that if Team Newsom fails \u2014 if the wealth tax reaches the November ballot \u2014 California voters will reject it.<\/p>\n Download the article. Click here.<\/strong><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_cta title=”Want to learn more?” button_url=”https:\/\/familyenterpriseusa.com\/polling-and-research\/wealth-tax\/” button_text=”Visit our State and Federal Wealth Tax Tracker – Click Here ” admin_label=”State and Federal Wealth Tax Tracker CTA” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” background_color=”#fc2f36″ custom_padding=”13px||18px|||” global_module=”17129″ global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_cta][et_pb_divider color=”#397389″ divider_weight=”2px” disabled_on=”off|off|off” _builder_version=”4.19.4″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_divider][et_pb_text disabled_on=”off|off|off” admin_label=”Become a member text” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat” link_option_url=”https:\/\/familyenterpriseusa.com\/donate-2\/” global_module=”5822″ global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n As we prepare for what promises to be a pivotal year for America, we’re asking you to consider becoming a member.<\/p>\n The need for fact-based reporting of issues important to family owned businesses<\/a> and protecting a lifetime of savings<\/a> has never been greater. Now more than ever, successful families<\/a> and family owned businesses<\/a> are under fire. That’s why Family Enterprise USA<\/a> is passionately working to increase the awareness of issues important to family owned businesses<\/a> built on hard work, while continuing to strengthen our presence on Capitol Hill. The issues we fight for or against with Congress in Washington DC include high income tax rates<\/a>, possible elimination of valuation discounts, increase in capital gains tax<\/a>, enactment of a wealth tax<\/a>, and the continued burden of the gift tax<\/a>, estate tax<\/a> and generation skipping tax<\/a>.<\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_button button_url=”https:\/\/familyenterpriseusa.com\/donate\/” button_text=”Become a Family Enterprise USA Member” button_alignment=”center” disabled_on=”off|off|off” admin_label=”Become FEUSA member button” _builder_version=”4.21.0″ _module_preset=”default” custom_button=”on” global_module=”6503″ global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_button][et_pb_divider color=”#397389″ divider_style=”dotted” divider_weight=”2px” disabled_on=”on|on|on” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” disabled=”on” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_divider][et_pb_video_slider disabled_on=”on|on|on” admin_label=”Video Slider Family Business Stories 2″ _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” disabled=”on” global_module=”6670″ global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_video_slider_item src=”https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=y9VszpRjVDM” _builder_version=”4.19.4″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” show_image_overlay=”off”][\/et_pb_video_slider_item][et_pb_video_slider_item src=”https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=03T2VODneEg” _builder_version=”4.19.4″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” show_image_overlay=”off”][\/et_pb_video_slider_item][et_pb_video_slider_item src=”https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=fHIxWaTwK64″ _builder_version=”4.19.4″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” show_image_overlay=”off”][\/et_pb_video_slider_item][et_pb_video_slider_item src=”https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=TI7P07GbNdU&t=27s” _builder_version=”4.19.4″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” show_image_overlay=”off”][\/et_pb_video_slider_item][\/et_pb_video_slider][et_pb_text disabled_on=”off|off|off” admin_label=”FEUSA Statement” _builder_version=”4.21.0″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat” link_option_url=”https:\/\/familyenterpriseusa.com\/donate-2\/” global_module=”5910″ saved_tabs=”all” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n Family Enterprise USA<\/a> promotes generationally<\/a> owned family business<\/a> creation, growth, viability, and sustainability by advocating for family businesses<\/a> and their lifetime of savings with Congress<\/a> in Washington DC.\u00a0 Since 2007, Family Enterprise USA<\/a> has represented and celebrated\u00a0all sizes, professions and industries of family-owned enterprises and multi-generational<\/a> employers. It is a bi-partisan 501.c3 organization.\u00a0Family foundations can donate.<\/a><\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text disabled_on=”on|on|on” admin_label=”Hash tags & Tags” _builder_version=”4.27.6″ _module_preset=”default” disabled=”on” global_module=”6498″ global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n #incometax #CapitalGainsTax #R&DExpensing #DontPunishSuccess #GrantorTrusts #StepUpinBasis #likeKindExchanges #AcceleratedDepreciation #EstateTax #Deathtax #wealthtax #taxLegislation #CongressionalCaucus #incometaxrates #repealestatetax #AdvocatingForFamilyBusinesses #FamilyOwnedBusiness #WomenOwnedBusiness @FamilyEnterpriseUSA #FamilyEnterpriseUSA #FEUSA<\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yet another tax-the-rich initiative is running into reality. By WILL SWAIM An SEIU-backed measure to tax the global assets of California\u2019s roughly 200 billionaires may be the rare progressive tax proposal defeated not by corporate money but by organized labor itself. That\u2019s the assessment on Polymarket, where, as of Wednesday, 64 percent of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":17605,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[48,92,115],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17595","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-family-businesses","category-multi-generational-business","category-wealth-tax"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/familyenterpriseusa.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17595","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/familyenterpriseusa.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/familyenterpriseusa.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/familyenterpriseusa.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/familyenterpriseusa.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=17595"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/familyenterpriseusa.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17595\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17606,"href":"https:\/\/familyenterpriseusa.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17595\/revisions\/17606"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/familyenterpriseusa.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/17605"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/familyenterpriseusa.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=17595"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/familyenterpriseusa.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=17595"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/familyenterpriseusa.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=17595"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}An SEIU-backed measure to tax the global assets of California\u2019s roughly 200 billionaires may be the rare progressive tax proposal defeated not by corporate money but by organized labor itself.<\/strong><\/em><\/h3>\n
We hope you’ve enjoyed this article. While you’re here, we have a small favor to ask…<\/em><\/h4>\n
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